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Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Can BC keep up its early-season success?

By Chris Maza
Fan Fanatic Sports Staff

Boston College has to be near the top of everyone's list when it comes to surprise teams in college football.

The Eagles sit at 4-1 on the season and appear on their way to another Bowl game. Most people didn't think they would win four games all season, given all the strife this offseason.

At first blush, they appear to be an elite team, but the 4-1 record is a bit empty. Their first two wins came against Northeastern in an FCS crossover game and Kent State, who is currently ranked 109th in the country. The Huskies, by the way, have yet to win a game, period.
In their third game, they were held to 54 total yards by Clemson in a 25-7 debacle that ousted Justin Tuggle as the starting quarterback. Since then Dave Shinskie has looked comfortable in two games with five touchdowns and just one interception.

Now that they have a seemingly good quarterback under center, the prospects look good for the Eagles, right? Well, take into account which teams Shinskie has done well against - Wake Forest and Florida State, who rank 79th and 112th in passing defense, respectively. Shinskie faces his toughest tests this week in Virginia Tech, who has allowed just three passing touchdowns. More impressive is that they have allowed just one touchdown, while intercepting four against No. 11 Miami, No. 3 Alabama and No.24 Nebraska. They follow that up with NC State, who is 26th in the country in pass defense. In fact, BC's next five opponents have combined to pick off almost as many passes as they have allowed passing touchdowns (19 interceptions, 23 TD's). Notre Dame has given up the most touchdowns with eight in five games, while intercepting the most passes in that group with five. It also merits noting that Notre Dame has faced three of the better passing teams in the country in Michigan State (14th), Purdue (30th) and Washington (32nd).

The Eagles need that passing game because their rushing attack has been lacking severely. Montel Harris had a big game against Florida State, thanks in part to the fact that they tried to knock him over instead of wrapping him up. His game-winning touchdown run displays that (:43 in this video). Take out the Florida State game and Harris is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry and that includes the Northeastern game. Take out that game and Harris hasn't even cracked 3 yards per carry. Was Florida State a coming out for Harris, or a flash in the pan?

What was expected to be the Eagles' main strength this year was the defense and on paper, they look to be just that. But the game isn't played on paper. The stats are padded by the Northeastern and Kent State games. This team gave up almost 500 yards of total offense in regulation against Wake Forest, then Florida State put up over 400 against them. Also, in those two games, the Eagles have given up double-digit leads in the second half. Boston College's next three opponents are all averaging over 30 points per game (Virginia Tech 31.4, NC State 35.0 and Notre Dame 32.6).

With all that said, Boston College does have a manageable schedule the rest of the way and has shown scrapiness in its ability to overcome late comebacks for wins and could very well be headed back to their third straight ACC championship game. But there are plenty of pitfalls, both in the schedule and on the roster which could lead to some major disappointments for Eagles fans who have recently found faith once again.

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