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Monday, October 5, 2009

Let's review: Predictions vs. reality for Notre Dame

By Chris Maza
Fan Fanatic Sports Staff

Five weeks into the season, Notre Dame has been involved in four of the most exciting games in college football and has come out on the right side of three of them. Now at 4-1, this Irish team is only the second in history to be 4-1 after five games and not be ranked, according to the Associated Press, not that I blame the pollsters for being skeptical. On top of the fact that three of the four wins have been squeakers against teams that are not considered the strongest in football, recent history is not on the Irish's side. The other Irish team to win four of its first five and not be ranked is last year's Notre Dame squad, which dropped five of its last seven games, including an embarassing loss to Boston College and an inexcusable 24-23 finish against lowly Syracuse. Will that happen again this year? While I can't tell the future, I can certainly look back at the past and see just how accurate I've been in my predictions for the Irish from my July 13th preview.

Nevada at Notre Dame
What I predicted: Nevada boasts one of the most dynamic offenses in football, ranking fifth in the country last year. The Irish struggled with the run last season as opponents were averaging about 4.1 yards per carry, which makes the Wolf Pack an interesting first test for Notre Dame. However, the Nevada defense gave up an un-Godly 321 yards per game through the air (ranking them dead last in college football behind Central Michigan by about 35 yards) and surrendered 29 touchdowns though the air.
Result: Notre Dame 38, Nevada 24; 1-0
What really happened: The Irish did have trouble controlling the run as Nevada averaged 5.3 yards per carry and Via Taua rushed for 118 yards. But the Irish controlled Colin Kaepernick, keeping him uncomfortable in the passing game, which Nevada had to turn to when Notre Dame took a 28-0 lead after the first half. As expected, Notre Dame victimized the Wolfpack through the air. Jimmy Clausen completed 15 of 18 passes for 315 yards, four touchdowns and no intereceptions.
Result: Notre Dame 35, Nevada 0; 1-0

Notre Dame at Michigan
What I predicted: Michigan is in year two of its rebuilding process, making them a team similar to Notre Dame last year. The talent is developing and could hurt some people, but is also very susceptible to let-downs. Tate Forcier is expected to be a talented quarterback, but if Notre Dame can put pressure on him, it could make for a long day for the Wolverines' offense. You can't count Michigan out of any game played at The Big House, but Notre Dame appears to have too much firepower for Rich Rodriguez's reclamation project.
Result: Notre Dame 27, Michigan 13; 2-0
What really happened: Tate Forcier's coming out party, that's what happened. The Irish threw almost every blitz package imaginable at the freshman, but he created things with legs and found open receivers on the run. Notre Dame trailed by 11 at 14:16 in the fourth, but came back to take a three-point lead with 5:13 remaining. Michigan drove and on second and goal from the two, Forcier completed a pass to Greg Matthews with 11 seconds left with the deciding score. Clausen tried to get down field quickly, but Golden Tate failed to get out of bounds in the final seconds.
Result: Michigan 38, Notre Dame 34; 1-1

Michigan State at Notre Dame
What I predicted: Notre Dame continues to have issues with the Spartans at home. In fact, the home team has lost in eight of the last nine meetings between these two teams. Michigan State ended that streak last year by beating the Irish at Spartan Stadium. While there's no Javon Ringer to carve up the Notre Dame defense, if the Spartans can control the Notre Dame ground game the way they did a year ago, they will put Jimmy Clausen in a situation he hasn't done particularly well in so far in his career - putting a team on his back and carrying them to a win.
Result: Michigan State 21, Notre Dame 17; 2-1
What really happened: Notre Dame trailed by one at the half, but after some trickery in the form of Armando Allen passing to Robby Parris from the Wildcat formation for a touchdown and a field goal, Notre Dame took the lead. but Michigan State came charging back with a field goal and touchdown pass of their own to take a four point edge. The Jimmy Clausen took the team on his back. Clausen completed all four of his pass attempts on the drive, including a 33-yard pass to Golden Tate for a touchdown. Kirk Cousins then tried to do the same for the Spartans and almost did, but overthrew a wide open Larry Caper. One play later, the Irish got pressure and force Cousins to throw an interception to Kyle McCarthy to seal the victory.
Result: Notre Dame 33, Michigan State 30; 2-1

Notre Dame at Purdue
What I predicted: Purdue had one of the worst rushing defenses in the league last season and are not expected to be much better this year, so this could be the game Armando Allen and company truly have their coming out party. Throw on top of that the fact that last year's third-string quarterback is now the Boilermakers' starter and the picture becomes pretty clear.
Result: Notre Dame 35, Purdue 6; 3-1
What really happened: With Armando Allen out with an injury, the Irish turned to Robert Hughes and Golden Tate for the rushing attack, including using Tate in a big way as the quarterback in the Wildcat formation. Clausen, playing in his first game with a turf-toe injury, was less than spectacular and didn't play the majority of the second half, but again came through in the clutch. After blowing a 17-7 lead in the fourth quarter, Clausen led the Irish down the field and completed a fourth and goal pass to Kyle Rudolph for a touchdown with 24.8 seconds left.
Result: Notre Dame 24, Purdue 21; 3-1

Washington at Notre Dame
What I predicted: For the second-straight week, the Notre Dame backfield tears up the opposition - this time against last year's third-worst rush defense - and gains more much-needed confidence. Jake Locker will do better than Randy Fouch did last season against the Notre Dame defense, but not nearly well enough to make up for his inept defense.
Result: Notre Dame 42, Washington 16; 4-1
What really happened: Jake Locker did do a lot better than Fouch, but neither team found the end zone with any regularity as eight field goals were kicked between the two sides. Notre Dame's defense came through in a huge way with three goal line stands, including one final one with just over three minutes remaining. On that stand, Irish stopped the Huskies twice on the one-yard line, forcing a field goal to keep the team within striking distance at 27-22. Clausen again game through in ahuge situation, completing a pass to his new red zone favorite Kyle Rudolph and Robert Hughes converted the two point attempt. But with the time left, Washington drove and kicked a tying field goal. In overtime, Clausen hit Golden Tate, bringing the Irish to the three. After an offsides penalty, Hughes scored from the one. On the Huskies' last play of the game, Locker scrambled and put up a prayer to D'Andre Gooden, which would have been caught if Harrison Smith and Kyle McCarthy hadn't sandwiched him so hard it nearly knocked him unconscious.
Result: Notre Dame 37, Washington 30; 4-1

So things have not gone exactly as expected, but at this point, the Irish are just about where I thought they'd be heading into the bye before the biggest game of the season against USC. How good is this team? That game will be more of a barometer than anything that has happened to this point in the season. All we know at this point is the Irish have heart and a true leader in Jimmy Clausen, something that seemed to be lacking from last season. Stay tuned.

Monday Night Football: Favre not a great quarterback; Pack will win

By Dan Shouse
Fan Fanatic Sports Staff
ESPN has been running promos for tonight's game between the Packers and Vikings with John Gruden stating that Brett Favre is fresh off yet another "legendary" win, referring to last week's heroics against the 49ers.
Yes, it was a great win and yes, Favre made the play (although the catch by Greg Lewis was better than the pass by Favre). But the fact remains for every great play by Favre to win a game, there are bad plays that cost his team the game.
Look no further than the 2007 NFC Championship Game, when Favre's INT in overtime cost the Packers a chance to go to the Super Bowl. Then there was the 2001 playoff matchup against the Rams, a game in which Favre threw six, yes six, interceptions. I won't even bring up last year with the Jets, when after an 8-3 start, Favre still could not get New York into the postseason.
I realize that Favre has thrown more TDs and passed for more yards than any QB ever, and that he has won a Super Bowl. He is Hall of Famer and a legend, there is no agruement there. Having said that however, I would not put him on the Mount Rushmore of great NFL quarterbacks.
If you had to pick one QB to lead your team to the Promised Land, do you really want Favre to be that guy? The "gunslinger" mentality that Favre brings to the game is fun to watch, but it would scare me to death if he was the QB at the helm of my team in a big game.
Give Packers GM Ted Thompson credit. Not only did he not allow the Packers to be held hostage by Favre's inability to play or stay retired, he made a smart decision to hand the offense over to Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers gives the Pack the best chance to win today and in the future. Vikings fans can get excited for now. A perfect 3-0 start, and Favre has been solid (5 TDs, INT), but much like last season in New York things will eventually turn for the worse.
If the Vikings play it smart and just keep handing the ball off to stud running back Adrian Peterson tonight, then Minnesota could very well win.
I don't think this will happen.
Favre loves to be the man, and I don't think he came out of retirement again just to hand the ball off. This is why I am picking the Packers to come away with a win in the Metrodome. There are certain things in life that we can all count on - death, taxes, and Favre throwing a big pick. It may not happen this week, but sooner or later it will.
Prediction: Packers 24 Vikings 23

Week 4 Recap: Patriots hold off Ravens for huge victory

By Dan Shouse
Fan Fanatic Sports Staff
It is hard to believe, but we are already a quarter of the way through the NFL season, and the race for the playoff is just starting to take shape.
Patriots 27 (3-1) Ravens 21 (3-1)
This was billed as one of the best games of the weekend, and it lived up to the hype. Thanks to a late Mark Clayton drop at the New England 5-yard line with seconds to play, the Patriots were able to hold on for a huge win in Foxboro. As an added bonus, Brady and Moss finally hooked up for TD for the first time this season.
Saints 24 (4-0) Jets 10 (3-1)
Mark Sanchez finally played like a rookie in New Orleans, throwing a pick-six, and fumbling in his own end zone to give the undefeated Saints 14 defensive points. The Jets defense continues to prove it is one of the better units in the league however, holding Drew Brees without a TD pass.
Redskins 16 (2-2) Buccaneers 13 (0-4)
After looking horrible in the first half, Jason Campbell and the Redskins offense actually showed some signs of life in the 3rd quarter, as Campbell hit Chris Cooley and Santana Moss for a pair of scores to lead Washington to the win at FedEx Field. Congrats to Jim Zorn. You get to keep your job for another week.
Jaguars 37 (2-2) Titans (0-4)
The Titans may now be all but eliminated from playoff contention after Sunday's loss in Jacksonville. Who would have thought that after being the No. 1 seed in last year's AFC playoffs, that the Titans would now be 0-4? The Titans pass defense was once again burned this week, this time by David Garrard who threw for over 300 yards and added 3 TDs.
Broncos 17 (4-0) Cowboys 10 (2-2)
Speaking of surprising starts, did anyone think that Josh McDaniels and his Denver Broncos would be perfect four games into the season? Even more surprising is that Brandon Marshall was the hero yesterday, hauling in a 51-yard TD pass with under 2 minutes to play, giving the Broncos the lead. The defense also came up big, as Champ Baily knocked down a last-second pass attempt by Tony Romo to preserve the win. It will be another long week in Big D for Romo.
Bengals 23 (3-1) Browns (0-4)
Once again the Bengals played a game that came down to the wire, this time sneaking by the Browns in overtime on Shayne Graham's 31-yard kick. Is there anyone who still thinks the Browns made the right move hiring Mangini?
Texans 29 (2-2) Raiders 6 (0-4)
This might as well have been a bye week for the Texans at home against Oakland. Steve Slaton finally showed up, getting in the end zone twice. That was all the offense Houston would need, as JeMarcus Russell struggled yet again, throwing for under 130 yards. Tom Cable said this week that he felt Russell has made major strides this year. I agree, but that is only because I don't want to get my jaw broke.
Bears 48 (3-1) Lions 24 (1-3)
This game was closer than the final scores shows, as the Lions and Bears were knotted up at 21 heading to the half. Johnny Knox's 102 yard kick off return to start the second half changed the complexion of this one quickly, as the Bears pulled away in the second half to get the win in Chicago.
Colts 34 (4-0) Seahawks 17 (1-3)
Peyton Manning is playing as well as he ever has, going over 300 yards each game this season. Seattle struggled all day in Indy, getting a pair of late touchdowns to make the score look closer than it really was. The Colts are flying high on both sides of the ball. At the quarter mark of the season, Indy looks like the favorite in the AFC.
Giants 27 (4-0) Chiefs 16
Not to be outdone by his older brother, Eli Manning threw for 3 scores at Arrowhead, as the Giants remained undefeated. No Plaxico Burress, no problem, as Steve Smith has emerged as Manning's go-to receiver, finding the end zone twice and going over 130 yards receiving.
Dolphins 38 (1-3) Bills 10 (1-3)
The TO watch is on. How many more games until he throws Trent Edwards under the bus? The Dolphins ran all day, as Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown carried the load, giving the Dolphins their first win of the season.
49ers 35 (3-1) Rams 0 (0-4)
The 49ers scored 3 defensive TDs in a rout at home over the Rams. The Rams look like the worst team in the league. At this point the annoying Bud Light "Grooler" commercials are more entertaining than the Rams.
Steelers 38 (2-2) Chargers 28 (2-2)
Behind big games from Rashard Mendenhall and Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers held off a late rally by the Chargers to get the win. After jumping ahead 28-0, the Steelers almost let this one slip away, as Phillip Rivers and Antonio Gates connected for two scores, helping to pull the Chargers within a touchdown at 28-21 in the 4th quarter. Jeff Reed iced the game however, hitting a late field goal to put the Steelers back up by 10.