By Jim Ingram
Fan Fanatic Sports Staff
Pitching, pitching, pitching. You can never have enough of it, and nearly every team is always on the look out for more of it. The National League Central is riddled with substandard starting rotations, so it's safe to assume the team with the best staff is likely to take the division crown.
The Chicago Cubs are the team with the best starting rotation. They have four solid starters in Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden, Ryan Dempster and Ted Lilly. Carlos Zambrano, the ace of the staff, was much better in the 2nd half of the season after his contract issues were resolved. Rich Harden was electric going 5-1 with a 1.77 era after the trade, but you always need to be concerned about his health. All Lilly and Dempster did was rack up 17 wins apiece. The bullpen should be deep as well. Lou Pinella just announced that Kevin Gregg will be the opening day closer. If he fails, Carlos Marmol can alwasy step in. Don't sleep on Jeff Smardzja. The former Notre Dame wide receiver had a 2.72 era in 27 2/3 innings. The Cubs offense should be on par with last season despite the trade of Mark DeRosa. Derek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano are all back. Geovany Soto will try to do his best against a sophomore jinx. The off season move I like the most is the addition of Milton Bradley. Despite his frequent off, and on, field problems, he can still hit. He hit .321, 22 HR & 77 RBI in only 126 games last season. I also like this move because Koske Fukudome can move back to centerfield where he is more comfortable.
The St. Louis Cardinals are a better team than most people realize. That doesn't mean you should hand them a spot in the playoffs, but they should be in the wild card race. They also have a lot of questions on offense. Can Ryan Ludwick come close to the .299, 37 HR & 113 RBI from last season? Can Rick Ankiel continue to improve at the plate? Will Skip Shumaker be able to make the defensive transition to second base while not suffering at the plate? Can the Cardinals get some help from youngster like Colby Rasmus and Joe Mather. What type of player will Kalil Greene be? Based on the spring many of these players are having, all signs point to yes. When Adam Wainright was healthy last year he was the ace of the staff, and should continue his improvement on the mound. Dave Duncan continued his great work with the staff as both Kyle Lohse and Todd Wellemeyer surprised everyone to combine for 29 wins. Luckily for the Cardinals it looks like Chris Carpenter is in the midst of another comeback as he's look sharp this spring (2-1, 1.52 ERA 23.2 IP). The back end of the bullpen is what concerns me. The bullpen blew 31 saves last season. Ryan Franklin (16 saves), Chris Perez and Jason Motte are all in line for save chances. If one of the three can win the job and be consistent, it will allow the rest of the bullpen to settle into their roles.
After losing their two aces, The Milwaukee Brewers will be taking a step back this season. Yovanni Gollardo is back healthy, but has looked shaky this spring. He's supposed to be the staff ace, but Dave Bush looks amazing this spring and may end up at the front. After them Manny Parra looks to improve over his 10-8 record last season. Jeff Suppan has looked decent this spring, but how much more does he have. If Trevor Hoffman can be even a shadow of himself, then he should finally bring some consistency to the bullpen. On offense, the Brewers have their entire lineup returning. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder continue to provide the pop in the middle of the order. Cory Hart is one of the most undervalued players in the NL, and J.J. Hardy should at least hit .280, 20 HR, 80+RBI. He may also be the best trade chip they have midseason if they fall out of the race. If that's the case Brewers fans will be happy to see Alcides Escobar finally hit the bigs.
As you'll see below, I have picked the Cincinnati Reds to finish 4th in the NL Central. Despite that, you should see a marked improvement in the team in 2009. I like the addition of Ramon Hernandez behind the plate, but am not sure about Willy Tavares. The last time I checked, it's still impossible to steal first. Joey Votto (.297, 24 HR, 84 RBI) is on the verge of being a star and should continue to improve. It's also important for Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion to take the next step. Both players have the ability to be all stars, but Encarnacion is still dealing with maturity issues. Bruce struggled after his meteoric start, but looks to be more at ease this spring. Aaron Harang should be better than the dismal season he had last year, Bronson Arroyo is a decent 4th starter, but is slotted as #3, and Micah Owings has been pretty good this spring. I would still caution anyone on how effective these pitchers can be. The Reds need Edison Volquez to be as brilliant as he was last year. What they need the most is vast improvements in Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey. The Great American Ballpark is a tough park to pitch in, so I wish them all good luck.
Somehow the Houston Astros had an 86-75 record last year. Don't look for them to repeat with another winning season. Outside of Roy Oswalt they don't have a dependable starter, and continue to struggle in the bullpen. Mike Hampton is once again attempting a comeback, Brandon Backe and Wandi Rodriguez are serviceable, but that's about it. Jose Valverde racked up 41 saves, but would never be in the discussion as the most reliable closer. They still have a decent lineup that benefits playing in a band box of a field. Lance Berkman continues to be one of the most productive bats in the game. Carlos Lee has struggled this spring, but should be back the his usual self after a wrist injury ended a great season (.314, 28 HR, 100 RBI in 115 games) too early. What does Miguel Tejada and Ivan Rodriguez have left? That's a good question. Rodriguez seems to be invigorated after a great World Baseball Classic, but Tejada has had a wild off season. Can you really expect much out of a man on parole? I guess we'll have to wait and see.
Once again The Pittsburgh Pirates should bring up the rear in the National League Central. Paul Maholm had a very good second half of '08, and has carried that over to the spring. Russ Ohlendorf, obtained from the Yankees in the Xavier Nady deal, has been brilliant this spring (allowing only 2 ER in 20.1 innings) but shouldn't be counted on for too much. The rest of the rotation contains former prospects unable to make the transition to the big leagues from the minors. On the positive side, Nate Mclouth and Ryan Doumit emerged as very good players last season. Adam Laroche looks to continue with an awful first half followed by a scorching second half. Freddy Sanchez is a nice player who would make a very good utility player on a good time. The rest of the lineup features prospects with great potential and Eric Hinske,and Craig Monroe. Hinske should see time at his usual 3 or 4 positions, while Monroe continues to impress with 6 HR and 13 RBI this spring. Adam Laroche, Andy's little brother, is having another great spring. This is a make or break year for the former Dodger's farmhand who has a history of hot springs followed by an injury or prolonged slump. Will this be the year Andrew MCutchen finally gets time in the bigs? He's raking this spring, and should get time in right field due to Brandon Moss's season ending injury.
PREDICTION
1. Cubs
2. Cardinals
3. Brewers
4. Reds
(Coming tomorrow: NL West preview by Jim Ingram)
