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Thursday, October 15, 2009

Believe it or not, Saturday is a big test for USC, too

By Chris Maza
Fan Fanatic Sports Staff

Ok, I'll be the first to admit that probably at least part of the reason Notre Dame is ranked in the Top-25 this week after being left out a week earlier is precisely to garner more excitement for this weekend's game between the Irish and USC. A lot of people at these universities, in the media and in the NCAA stand to make a lot of money from a "marquis matchup" between two Top-25 teams as opposed to a perceived powerhouse getting ready to pummel another unranked team.

That said, Notre Dame does have the potential to give USC, and most specifically its defense, its biggest test of the season.

USC is ranked fourth in the nation with an mere 8.6 points allowed per game. They're among the leaders in sacks. They haven't allowed a passing touchdown all season. Of course, those numbers have come against San Jose State (115th in scoring offense), Ohio State (46th), Washington (64th), Washington State (117th), California (41st) and Arizona (58th). This is not to take anything away from USC. Defensively, they are still one of the most talented groups in college football and despite their youth at several positions after graduating pretty much their entire front seven, the Trojans have been as good as advertised.

It all starts with the most veteran part of the defense, which is the secondary and it all starts in the secondary with safety Taylor Mays. At at 6-foot-3, 230 pounds, Mays is a beast with future NFL superstar written all over him. Both physically and emotionally, he is the catalyst.
But you can't dismiss the fact that if you look at the teams USC has faced, the Irish offense is by far the most explosive and they may be the most explosive the Trojans face until bowl season. The Irish rank 10th in total offense and 27th in scoring offense. The passing game averages 322 yards per game, good for eighth nationally, despite being without their primary deep threat. Jimmy Clausen has had just one game where he passed for less than 300 yards - the one against Purdue where he sat most of the second half until leading the team to a last-minute comback victory. Golden Tate is fourth in the nation in receiving. With all this being said, it looks as if Notre Dame's offensive strengths play right into the Trojans' strengths defensively. And if the Irish featured the same running game they did last year, that probably would be the case.

But the Irish, thanks in part to a much-improved offensive line and in part to the running backs' commitment in the offseason to get better at not going down after the first hit, are more multi-faceted on offense than they have been in years. Not since Darius Walker graduated has Notre Dame had a really potent running game. This season the Irish don't have a dynamic running attack, but it is something defenses need to think about. They improved from a paltry 3.3 yards per carry last season to a more respectable 4.1 yards per carry as a team this year. And that came with starting tailback Armando Allen being hurt for the equivilent of two games. Allen and his 5.1 yards per carry will be completely recovered from an ankle injury. Robert Hughes is a bruising backup and Jonas Gray provides big play ability both with his speed and his ability to catch passes out of the backfield. On top of that, lead blocker James Aldridge, who has been out since injuring his shoulder against Nevada, will be back. Long story short, the Trojans can't just sit back and wait for Jimmy Clausen. There is the very real possibility that Notre Dame will try to attack the young and banged up USC front four. It will keep the Trojans linebackers from focusing on blitzing and quarterback pursuit and could require the Trojans to pull their safeties closer to the line of scrimmage.

Still, as good as the offense may be, the real x-factor is the Irish defense and to this point it has not been outstanding. Three goal-line stands against Washington aside, the team has been pretty mediocre against everyone it has faced. Joe McKnight, not Matt Barkley will be called upon to carry the Trojans to a win. He's averaging 7.1 yards per carry and has by far been the most potent part of the Trojans' offense this season. There's little reason to think he can't have a big game against the Irish. The Irish do have the advantage of not having to worry about the kind of running threat at quarterback that guys like Jake Locker, Tate Forcier and Colin Kaepernick pose and those are the teams that have provided the most difficulty for the defense, but the bottom line is the Irish rank 68th in rushing defense.

Prediction:
It will be an entertaining game, but USC just has a higher level of talent, especially defensively. USC 38, Notre Dame 29

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