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Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Fantasy Baseball: Between the White Lines


By Jim Ingram
Fan Fanatic Sports Staff
Welcome to the very first edition of Between the White Lines.  BTWL is an inside look at the numbers from the previous week and how they translate into pick up trends, and players who should be on your radar.  BWTL will be a weekly entry that comes out on Wednesday morning that takes a harder look inside the numbers.  While Chad did a great job leading off Monday and letting us know who the best and worst players are for the first week, I want to take a look and provide you some insight on what you can expect for the near and distant future.  
Let me first start with the pick up trends I've seen during the first week of the season.  I'll review the top 5 added and dropped players each week and let you know what you can expect going forward.  The top 5 added and dropped players will be taken from the Fantasy Baseball section of ESPN.com.  
(Editor's note: Also be sure to check out more must-have fantasy baseball information Fridays every week.)
Top 5 Added:
1. Emilio Bonifacio (2b, 3b) Florida Marlins
AVGRHRRBISB
.5009154
Bonny has been the hottest player in the majors through the first week.  Before the season he was only on 12% of fantasy teams, but has shot up to 89% after the best week of his life.  He also had a hot start after he joined the Nationals, but pitchers quickly learned how to throw to him.  He'll be good in the short term, but don't think you're going to get .300, 10+HR, 75+RBI, with an OBP of .380+.  It looks like he's going to get plenty of playing time at third, and is also eligible at second which is a big upside.  I wouldn't be surprised with 20+ steals though.  He'll soon cool down, so trade him now if you have the chance.
2. Brandon Inge (C, 3b, Of) Detroit Tigers 
AVGRHRRBISB
.269747
I've long been a fan of Inge because of his catcher eligibility, but you have to know what you're getting from him.  He'll never hit for average, but will get you 15 homers and 75 RBI when healthy.  He was drafted in only 7%, but is now on 73.5% of fantasy teams.  He's a decent overall player and good to have at the end of your bench.  His production is sure to cool down, but I'd hold onto him if you have the spot on your bench.  
3. Marco Scutaro (ss, 2b, 3b) Toronto Blue Jays
AVGRHRRBISB
.33310250
Scutaro is another one of those players you don't mind having on your bench, especially in an AL only league.  Scutaro was only owned in 2% of leagues going into the season.  He's still a free agent in nearly 50% of all leagues so make sure to grab him if you need someone to spot start in the infield.  As I'm sure you know already, I am a sucker for multi positional eligibility.  Last year was the first of his career that he had more than 500 at bats and ended up being the 16th most productive shortstop in fantasy.  I think it's safe to say he'll have a .270, 7 HR, 60RBI type season again.  Don't look for him to put up much more than that.
4. Nick Swisher (1b, Of) New York Yankees
AVGRHRRBISB
.45093100
Chicago White Sox fans must be besides themselves right now.  Swisher had his worst season in the bigs during his only season with the Sox, and looks to be revitilized in New York.  He's still availalbe in 54% of ESPN leagues so grab if you can. He should be a very good utility player this season playing all three outfield positions, first base and DH.  He's had a strong start to this season in a deep lineup, and shouldn't lose any time when Arod returns.
5. Jordan Schafer (Of) Atlanta Braves
AVGRHRRBISB
.3486230
Schafer, the exciting rookie centerfielder, is still eligible in 69% of leagues.  I doubt he's still out there in NL only leagues, but make sure to double check in your league.  Despite the fact he hasn't stolen a base yet, he should easily swap 20 bags this season.  His 1.110 OPS should drop into the .7oo's, if not lower as the season goes on.  He's only hit 10 homer once in his minor league career so don't expect much more than that as well.  I would suggest waiting if you can.  Let's see how he's doing in early/mid May.

Top 10 Dropped:
1. Joey Devine (RP) Oakland A's
W-LSVKERAWHIP
0-0000.000.0
Don't look at all the zeros and questions why someone would drop Devine.  He's on the 60 day DL and have no conclusive tests on his right elbow.  For all anyone knows he could be out for the season.
2. Jason Motte (RP) St. Lious Cardinals
W-LSVKERAWHIP
0-10315.433.0
Motte has had a disastrous start to the season for the Cardinals.  He broke camp as the closer and the allowed 4 runs in the ninth inning of the season opener to blow the game.  He's looked better in his two outings since, but Tony La Russa loves spreading the saves around these days.  If you absolutely need a reliever pick him up, but I would suggest holding off for now.  You never know how many opportunities he'll get.  
3. Brandon Lyon (RP) Detroit Tigers
W-LSVKERAWHIP
1-1009.001.67
Have you noticed a trend within a trend here with the most dropped players.  Brandon Lyon is yet another opening day closer who has lost his job a week into the season.  Like Motte, he blew the season opener letting up 3 runs in the bottom of the 9th in Toronto.  After that, Jim Leyland gave the job to Fernando Rodney who has already notched 2 saves on the season.  Like St. Lious, the closer job in Detroit should be a fluid situation throughout the season.  Lyon is a more consistent pitcher than Rodney, so stash if you can.  If not, keep a close eye on the situation.
4. Chris Ray (RP) Baltimore
W-LSVKERAWHIP
0-00315.433.4
In 2006 Chris Ray had 33 saves and an additional 16 in 2007 before he blew out his arm.  After missing the entire 2008 season, he's just trying to return to form. He pitched well in the spring so many people assumed he'd take some save chances from George Sherrill.  That has not happened, so it's time to jump ship.  
5. Khalil Greene (SS) St. Lious Cardinals
AVGRHRRBISB
.2764041
Let's say hello to the only position player in the top 5 dropped.  To say that I strongly dislike Khalil Greene would be a major understatement.  In my opinion, he's a constant underacheiver that will never be close to his potential.  Thanks to a 3 hit day on April 12th, he was able to raise his average from .190 to .280.  Ah, the wonders of early season baseball averages.  He's had two multi hit games along with 4 runs and RBI.  The shortstop position is still thin within the majors, so keep him on the back burner.  He did hit 27 homers with 97 RBI two season ago, so don't give up on him yet. 

Players who need to be on your radar:
Chad Tracy is having an oustanding start to the season and he's finally healthy.  He's owned in only 3% of leagues and is the starting 1st baseman for the Diamondbacks.  He needs to be picked up right now.  If you need a catcher, go ahead and pick up John Baker of the Marlins.  He's owned in only 6% of leagues and is currently hitting .308 with an .855 OPS.  Ricky Romero, the rookie lefty from Toronto, should also be on your radar.  He pitched well in his major league debut.  He was the 6th overall pick in the 2005 draft and does have good upside.  Don't give up on Jamie Moyer.  I know he had a terrible first start, but does have two starts coming this week. Both starts are on the road where he had a 2.92 ERA last season.  Kyle Davies has translated his amazing spring to the regular season.  He threw 7 shutout innings against the White Sox last week and is owned in only 25% of leagues.  
Well, that's all for the first entry.  Make sure to check back every Monday, Wednesday and Friday for in depth fantasy baseball analysis all year.

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