Fantasy Baseball (first base): Pujols, clearly the best

By Jim Ingram
Fan Fanatic Sports Staff
Yesterday, Chad started us off with the catcher rankings, so today we'll delve into first base. The first base position was once the darling of all things power, but has taken a slight turn in recent years with the "ending" of the steroid era. Gone are the days of five or more 40-50 home runs, 130-plus RBI players.
When it comes to the first base position, I now think about a hitter that bats around .300, about 30 HRs, 100+ RBI, 85+ runs, and an OPS over .900. That type of production will bring you a top 30 fantasy player. Based on 2008 stats, there were six of those players (Pujols, Berkman, Youkilis, Texiera, M. Cabrera and Aubrey Huff) Yes, in case you didn't notice it, Huff did have that good of year in 2008.
Albert Pujols is clearly the most productive at this position, and is typically ranked in the top 2-3 overall fantasy positions. It's hard to argue with a player who hit .357 with 37 HRs, 115 RBIs, 100 runs, and had an OPS of 1.114. Pujols is 29, we think, and is still in the prime of his career. At this point, the only thing that will stop him from meteoric climb into the record books is his health.
Despite the fact that his stats fell in several places last year, Miguel Cabrera happily takes his place behind Pujols. An awful start last year caused his average, OPS, and runs to fall off a bit, but his great second half turned around his season. He set career highs in both home runs (37) and RBIs (127). Now that he's more comfortable at first base, look to him to continue his hot second half in 2009. In my opinion, he's the only other clear cut first-rounder for this position.
After the Pujols and Cabrera there is still good fantasy depth at this position. The next tier of players include Lance Berkman, Ryan Howard, Mark Texiera and Kevin Youkilis. You should be comfortable with taking any of these players within rounds 2 and 3. Of those players, Berkman would be the most valuable. He had a career-high 18 stolen bases last season.
If you concentrated on other position early in the draft, you can still add a quality first basemen in round 4-6. Prince Fielder, Justin Morneau, Aubrey Huff and Adrian Gonzalez are all top 50-60 fantasy players. If you completely forget about the position until the 6th round or later, you should still be able to pick Carlos Pena, Garett Atkins, Jorge Cantu and Adam Dunn.
Don't get old on me/On the down slide:
Carlos Delgado had a comeback year last year, but how much longer can he do it? Delgado will be "37" this June, and showed serious signs of age and lack of production in 2007. I can't see him putting up 38 HRs and 115 RBIs like last year, but wouldn't be surprised if he hit around 30 homers with 90+ RBIs. I would proceed with caution and take someone with more upside.
After career highs in average, homers and RBIs in 2005, Derek Lee has been on the down slide since an injury limited him to only 50 games in 2006. Since 2005, Lee has barely managed 22 HRs (in 2008) and has driven in no more than 90 runs. His numbers haven't been bad, but just not good enough to take early on in the draft.
Up and Comers:
There are four players I think will make big improvements in 2009 -- Joey Votto, Chris Davis, James Loney and Pablo Sandoval. Votto will be the most valuable of the four in my opinion. After hitting .297, with 24 HRs and 84 RBIs in his first full season, I expect him to increase his power numbers. He hits in the hitter friendly Great American Ballpark, so I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see him put up 30 HRs and 100 RBIs. That type of production would move him into the top 10 at the position for next season.
Davis is another player to look at for 30+ homers and close to 100 RBIs. He hit 17 HR and 55 RBIs in only 295 at-bats last year. He is a full-timer in Texas, he could make huge strides this season. I expect a good 25 homers and 85+ RBIs this season down in the heat of Arlington. Don't forget he's also eligible at third base.
As you will all come to find out, I am a diehard Dodgers fan (yes, I know that is an Oxymoron). James Loney has all the tools to be a very good first baseman. He can hit for average, drive in runs and plays well in the postseason. Loney needs to do two things to make a larger impact in the fantasy world -- hit more home runs and get on base more. Power and patience are often the last things to develop in a hitter. He's only 24 and should eclipse the 20 HR plateau this season.
Pablo Sandoval, eligible at 1B, 3B, and C this season, could be the most unheralded of the four youngsters. He impressed in just 145 at-bats last season for the San Francisco Giants, hitting a robust .345 with 3 HRs, and 34 RBIs. His value is on the rise as he's mashing the ball this spring. I don't typically put much stock in spring training numbers, but he's currently hitting .444 with 2 HRs and 5 RBIs with an OPS of 1.031. That will certainly get my attention.
See how the top 20 rounds out below. As always, FFS loves to hear how its fans think about our rankings. Let us know!
(Coming tomorrow: Second base rankings by Josh Bremberg)

TOP 20 FIRST BASEMEN

1. Albert Pujols (STL)
2. Miguel Cabrera (DET)
3. Lance Berkman (HOU)
4. Ryan Howard (PHI)
5. Mark Texeira (NYY)
6. Kevin Youkilis (BOS)
7. Prince Fielder (MIL)
8. Justin Morneau (MIN)
9. Aubrey Huff (BAL)
10. Adrian Gonzalez (SD)
11. Derek Lee (CHI)
12. Garret Atkins (COL)
13. Carlos Pena (TB)
14. Chris Davis (TEX)
15. Adam Dunn (WAS)
16. Carlos Delgado (NYM)
17. Jorge Cantu (FLA)
18. Joey Votto (CIN)
19. James Loney (LAD)
20. Pablo Sandoval (SF)