By Dan Shouse
Fan Fanatic Sports Staff
Heading into the season opener against the New York Yankees, the Red Sox newly discovered philosophy of "run prevention" will be put to an early season test.
The John Lackey signing was great, and Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron will certainly bring better defense to the Red Sox lineup, but something just doesn't seem right with the Red Sox new focus on pitching and defense.
For years, Theo Epstien has preached high on base percentage, and loved players who were tough outs at the plate. Theo had players who could work the count up and down the lineup. Now we are supposed to believe that run prevention is the way to go? What happened to getting guys who were great at getting on base? What ever happened to building up the opposing teams pitch count? This worked great in the past, and brought a pair of World Series Championships to Boston. If it is not broke, why fix it?
I like Mike Cameron, but really, he is a rally killer. Red Sox Nation will not be happy the first time he kills a rally by striking out on 3 pitches, and bails the other team out of a jam. The whole run prevention mantra reeks of Theo trying to cover up for bad off seasons the last few years.
It all started with the failed Mark Texiera signing after the 2008 season. The Red Sox dropped the ball with Tex. The Sox could have matched the New York offer. What was the difference between the Red Sox and the Yankees offer? Maybe 10 or 12 million? Over the course of an 8 year contract the Red Sox would have only had to pay another 1 or 2 million a season. That is long reliever money, and something the Red Sox could have easily done.
Same goes with Jason Bay. The deal that he got from the Mets was something that Theo and company could have beaten. Guys like Bay, who are good for 30 HR and 100 RBI every year, are not easy to find.
The killer is the both Texeria and Bay should be productive throughout their contracts, and have little risk, with big upside.
Even if Beltre has a huge year, he could be one and done in Boston because he only under contract for one year. Cameron is clearly nearing the end.
I know the Sox have a bunch of talent in the minors, but will Red Sox Nation really put up with a bridge year to 2011 or 2012. The Red Sox should be able to put a winner on the field every year with the fiances they have. They are the only team that can really compete with the Yankees in that regard.
Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego is name that keeps getting brought up to add some punch to the Sox lineup, but he will cost the Red Sox some of their prized prospects. Tex and Bay could have been here without having to give up any players.
The failed signing of Tex and Bay will come back to haunt the Red Sox. If not for John Lackey, it really could have been a lost off season for the Red Sox.
As it looks now, the Red Sox seemed to be destined to lose a lot of 2-1 or 3-2 games. At the end of last season, the Red Sox needed to add offense and failed. Theo tried to sell the Nation on run prevention, but in the end it could add up to an 88 win season and no playoffs. Will the Nation find this acceptable? I hope Theo is right about the new found faith in pitching and defense.
Maybe it is the way to go, and the Red Sox will continue to win 95 games and play deep into October. For some reason, I just don't see this happening, and the Sox will be on the outside looking in come playoff time.
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I agree with most of this. I will say that the whole world of sabermetrics and the whole "moneyball" theory that Theo subscribes to does have a lot to do with defense as well. People focus on the OBP, OPS, etc. and such because it's sexier and frankly just plain more tangible than calculating runs prevented. However, I believe that there has to be a balance of both and the Red Sox had that in 2004 and 2007 especially. Theo saw his team was too heavy on one side of the equation (say what you will about that team not being able to score runs. The Sox were third in runs scored), so he overcompensated on defense this year. Theo has done a masterful job with creating a system that develops some great ballplayers, but when it comes to bringing in already developed talent, he seems to lack a real strategy or philosophy and instead gets obsessed with certain players.
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