Win or go home for the Patriots

By Chad Garner

Fan Fanatic Sports Staff

It's put up or shut up time.

When the third-seeded Patriots host No. 6 Baltimore on Sunday at 1 p.m. at Gillette Stadium, both teams know there's no margin for error.

Can the Patriots advance or will the Ravens send them packing for a very long offseason?

It's win or go home.

There's just nothing like the NFL playoffs.

Both the Patriots and Ravens are physical football teams, plus they've already played earlier in the season (Pats won 27-21 as the Ravens' potential winning drive was stopped in the red zone after Mark Clayton dropped an easy pass on fourth down).

It's pretty simple to figure out: Both teams know each other well, so the team that's able to execute in all three phases of the game is going to come out on top.

It's easier said than done, though.

The Patriots know they're going to be in for a dogfight. The Ravens aren't explosive on offense and the defense isn't what it used to be, but every Pats fan knows these Ravens should be respected.

If the Pats don't execute, you can expect the season to be over at about 4 p.m.

But the Pats don't lose at home, and that bodes pretty well with Tom Brady leading the charge.

This is Brady's game to win. While the Ravens play the run very well, they are soft in the secondary (although you better watch out for safety Ed Reed on every single play) and that's where the Pats must attack.

Losing Wes Welker to a season-ending knee injury is a big blow to the offense, not to mention that's been Brady's security blanket -- especially on third down.

But when one man goes down, another must step up.

Rookie Julian Edelman, who possesses great quickness just like Welker (but I think the rookie has breakaway speed when he catches the ball unlike Welker, however), is in the spotlight this week. He's got to control the middle of the field and win every one-one-one matchup against a linebacker or safety.

I'll willing to bet the former college QB is going to see a lot of passes thrown his way because Randy Moss should command a constant double-team. If the Ravens double Moss (which they should since he's now Brady's only proven threat), that's going to open up the middle for Edelman to operate. Why do you think Welker has been so successful? Yes, it's because of all the attention paid to Moss.

But let's not forget about my secret weapon this week -- Benjamin Watson. The tight end with great speed should be open quite often, but Brady's got to find him and Watson needs to catch the football. If he produces, watch how successful the passing game will be and how the running game might find some lanes with Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris.

Let's also not forget about the offense line. They've got to pick up the Ravens' exotic blitz packages or Brady is going to be beat up and forced to hurry his throws.

So Dan Koppen, Logan Mankins, Stephen Neal, Matt Light and Sebastian Vollmer -- a very solid starting five -- need to step up and deliver. Games are won and lost in the trenches, so win those battles men!!!

That also goes for the Patriots' defensive line. Let's hope Vince Wilfork is back on the nose to help neutralize Baltimore's punishing running game. With Wilfork in the middle, it makes everyone around him so much better.

New England better be ready for a steady diet of power running by the talented Ray Rice, who is also a threat in the passing game, and Willis McGahee. The Ravens really lean on their rush game, but quarterback Joe Flacco is going to have to win this game because there's no way Bill Belichick will let them win by pounding the rock.

In the first meeting, New England got constant pressure on Flacco, forcing the strong-armed QB to throw a pick while also sacking him twice.

The Pats can't sit back and play coverage, they must put heat on Flacco or the QB will stay in the pocket and keep hitting his favorite target, Derrick Mason. But also don't sleep on tight end Todd Heap, who's lost a step but can still beat most defenders with great route running and sure hands.

But the key is stopping the heart and soul of the team, Rice. He's got the speed to pop a long TD off the edge, and he's strong enough to constantly pound the ball between the tackles. And when the Ravens throw, Flacco loves to check the ball down to Rice. What may appear to be a modest gain, Rice has the talent to turn those into game-changing plays.

How New England defends Rice will go a long way in determining if the Pats win or lose.

And don't forget about the kicking game. New England has a big advantage with the strong leg of Stephen Gostkowski vs. Baltimore journeyman Billy Cundiff. If the game is on the line, put your money on Gostkowski. Cundiff doesn't have a very strong leg and he's been plagued by misses throughout his career.

Prediction: New England 20-17.