A must-win for the Patriots

By Chad Garner

Fan Fanatic Sports Staff

It's been a long week in New England.

The pain of losing to the Colts last week hasn't completely worn off, but it's no doubt time to turn the page because the hated New York Jets and bigmouth head coach Rex Ryan are coming to Foxboro and are looking to start another street fight.

Yes, you can say this is a must-win for the Patriots. I know they're 6-3 and lead the AFC East, but they desperately need a win to get that bad taste out of their mouth from last week and to shut up the Jets and get their swagger back.

The last time the Pats and Jets met was in Week 2. Both teams have gotten better, just like everyone else, but the Pats have been a lot more consistent considering the Jets enter with a sub-.500 record at 4-5.

In the first meeting, the Jets won, 16-9, in a frustrating game for the Pats and quarterback Tom Brady. It's was only Brady's second game back from his knee injury and looking back on his play now, boy was he rusty.

Brady was 23 of 47 for 216 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT and was harassed all day long by the Jets' blitzing defense. But remember one thing, the Pats were without WR Wes Welker and the Jets were able to neutralize Randy Moss with star cornerback Darrelle Revis and safety help over the top.

If the Jets want to double Moss (4 catches for 24 yards) again -- and don't buy the lip service from Revis that he locked Moss down one-on-one the entire game because it's simply not true -- they will pay dearly.

With Moss and Welker on the same field, it's pick your poison for the Jets. Obviously they're going to pay extra attention to Moss, so if that's the case expect Welker to play a big role considering the Jets will blitz Brady again and the QB will have to look to get rid of the ball quick (and his favorite target when teams blitz are either short to Welker or fade routes to Moss deep).

But the Pats must show they can run the ball with Laurence Maroney (does everyone love bashing him or what?) and Kevin Faulk, who looked good last week vs. the Colts.

That brings us to the other side of the ball -- the defense. I know they felt like coach Bill Belichick didn't have confidence in them last week when he left the offense on the field and went for it on fourth-and-2 in their own territory late, so here's their shot to gain confidence back by being able to shut down the Jets.

New York's offense all starts with the running game, led by tough tailback Thomas Jones. While the Pats did a great job in holding him down in the first meeting (Jones had only 54 yards on 14 carries), Leon Washington had 58 yards but he is now on injured reserve.

So it's important to shut the running game right down and make rookie QB Mark Sanchez beat them. Sanchez, who scuffled in the first half vs. the Pats in Week 2, did exactly that the last time by throwing for 163 yards on 14-of-22 passing with a third-quarter TD pass to Dustin Keller. The most important stat for the rookie was zero interceptions.

The Pats must confuse Sanchez with several different coverage looks. There's no reason they shouldn't be able to, considering they had Peyton Manning shaking his head in the first half last week.

But it's not going to matter one bit unless they can get some kind of pressure on Sanchez. If he's allowed to sit back and survey the field, his receivers will get open and the rookie out of Southern California will find his targets.

Chad's Take: I can't believe many of these football gurus think this is going to be a blowout with the Pats winning. These division rivals know each other inside and out, and I think it's going to be a pretty close game. I think the Jets will find some running room with Jones exploiting the middle and that will allow Sanchez to set up play-action with some effectiveness. But I also think the Pats will have a few defensive wrinkles that the rookie hasn't seen, and the defense is a major reason why they come out on top.

I think the Patriots' offense will struggle at times because they really can't run the football with any type of consistency, not to mention they don't stick with it long enough to really be effective. So it again falls on the passing game to put together lengthy drives because the Jets will not allow the Pats to strike fast with Moss outrunning the secondary. The Pats will have to take what the Jets give and that's going to be short to intermediate passes because of the Jets' constant pressure schemes.

But in the end, Brady and Co. will do just enough to pull out a closer-than-expected victory.

Prediction: 23-20