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Monday, October 19, 2009

Notre Dame's postseason aspirations in serious peril.

By Chris Maza
Fan Fanatic Sports Staff

The USC game on Saturday was more than a rivalry game. It was more than a measuring stick for how far the Irish had come. It was the gateway to the postseason. And now that door is closing. One more loss and it will be slamming shut.

The Irish went into this season with questions upon questions and heading into Saturday's game, not many had been answered. The Irish drubbed Nevada, but its next four games all came down to the last minute or overtime. They were 11 seconds from being 5-0 and about at the same token, they were about one minute from being 1-4.

Notre Dame took to their home field and defended it honorably against the Trojans. They could have folded and called it a day when they fell behind, 34-14, but they didn't give up, cutting a 20-point deficit to seven and within four yards of sending the game to overtime.

But near wins count for nothing and the loss just adds to the questions surrounding Notre Dame.

Just how good is this team?

By most accounts, it seems pretty clear that pollsters see Notre Dame as a good team, but not great. The AP poll ranks the Irish 26th. The Harris Poll has them at 28th, while the USA Today rankings put them 30th. The computers don't seem to be quite sure what to think of the Irish, as different formulas rank them anywhere from 17th to 31st. Combine the Harris and USA Today polls with the computers and BCS rankings have Notre Dame at 31st.

Bottom line, if the Irish want to even have a shot at the BCS, they need to win out. And with the remaining schedule, it's easier said than done.

Boston College, who has won six straight against the Irish and four of the last five games in South Bend. The Eagles have done well victimizing weak defenses, especially against the run, and Notre Dame qualifies. The difference between this matchup an the Eagles' previous wins is their opponents have not exactly had powerhouse offenses. Notre Dame does.

Washington State is the only real cupcake on this season's schedule for the Irish and doesn't figure to be a huge challenge.

But that is followed by the toughest matchup remaining on paper and what could be the Irish's biggest bargaining chip. Pitt is currently ranked 20th in the BCS rankings with two winnable games against South Florida and Syracuse coming up that could improve its stock. If the Irish comes in at 6-2 and beats the Panthers, they could put themselves into a decent position heading into the final two games of the season. But again, a strong running attack could pose some serious problems for Notre Dame.

Connecticut suffered a major tragedy for its program with Jasper Howard getting stabbed to death on campus on Saturday, just hours after getting the game ball. How the team carries on the rest of the season remains to be seen, but from what the coach has shown so far in terms of being a rock for his players, the Huskies should be just fine in terms of on-field play, but are beatable.

Stanford is another game that the Irish could easily cough up, but also looks beatable.

Lose another game and they are done. Win out and it could get interesting. The BCS championship chances are long gone, not that they were really ever there to begin with, but heading into the USC game, there was still a sense of confidence that the BCS was within reach. But can the Irish really come off a heartbreaking loss and win six straight? The more realistic scenario may be the Gator Bowl.

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