Let's review: Predictions vs. reality for Notre Dame

By Chris Maza
Fan Fanatic Sports Staff

Five weeks into the season, Notre Dame has been involved in four of the most exciting games in college football and has come out on the right side of three of them. Now at 4-1, this Irish team is only the second in history to be 4-1 after five games and not be ranked, according to the Associated Press, not that I blame the pollsters for being skeptical. On top of the fact that three of the four wins have been squeakers against teams that are not considered the strongest in football, recent history is not on the Irish's side. The other Irish team to win four of its first five and not be ranked is last year's Notre Dame squad, which dropped five of its last seven games, including an embarassing loss to Boston College and an inexcusable 24-23 finish against lowly Syracuse. Will that happen again this year? While I can't tell the future, I can certainly look back at the past and see just how accurate I've been in my predictions for the Irish from my July 13th preview.

Nevada at Notre Dame
What I predicted: Nevada boasts one of the most dynamic offenses in football, ranking fifth in the country last year. The Irish struggled with the run last season as opponents were averaging about 4.1 yards per carry, which makes the Wolf Pack an interesting first test for Notre Dame. However, the Nevada defense gave up an un-Godly 321 yards per game through the air (ranking them dead last in college football behind Central Michigan by about 35 yards) and surrendered 29 touchdowns though the air.
Result: Notre Dame 38, Nevada 24; 1-0
What really happened: The Irish did have trouble controlling the run as Nevada averaged 5.3 yards per carry and Via Taua rushed for 118 yards. But the Irish controlled Colin Kaepernick, keeping him uncomfortable in the passing game, which Nevada had to turn to when Notre Dame took a 28-0 lead after the first half. As expected, Notre Dame victimized the Wolfpack through the air. Jimmy Clausen completed 15 of 18 passes for 315 yards, four touchdowns and no intereceptions.
Result: Notre Dame 35, Nevada 0; 1-0

Notre Dame at Michigan
What I predicted: Michigan is in year two of its rebuilding process, making them a team similar to Notre Dame last year. The talent is developing and could hurt some people, but is also very susceptible to let-downs. Tate Forcier is expected to be a talented quarterback, but if Notre Dame can put pressure on him, it could make for a long day for the Wolverines' offense. You can't count Michigan out of any game played at The Big House, but Notre Dame appears to have too much firepower for Rich Rodriguez's reclamation project.
Result: Notre Dame 27, Michigan 13; 2-0
What really happened: Tate Forcier's coming out party, that's what happened. The Irish threw almost every blitz package imaginable at the freshman, but he created things with legs and found open receivers on the run. Notre Dame trailed by 11 at 14:16 in the fourth, but came back to take a three-point lead with 5:13 remaining. Michigan drove and on second and goal from the two, Forcier completed a pass to Greg Matthews with 11 seconds left with the deciding score. Clausen tried to get down field quickly, but Golden Tate failed to get out of bounds in the final seconds.
Result: Michigan 38, Notre Dame 34; 1-1

Michigan State at Notre Dame
What I predicted: Notre Dame continues to have issues with the Spartans at home. In fact, the home team has lost in eight of the last nine meetings between these two teams. Michigan State ended that streak last year by beating the Irish at Spartan Stadium. While there's no Javon Ringer to carve up the Notre Dame defense, if the Spartans can control the Notre Dame ground game the way they did a year ago, they will put Jimmy Clausen in a situation he hasn't done particularly well in so far in his career - putting a team on his back and carrying them to a win.
Result: Michigan State 21, Notre Dame 17; 2-1
What really happened: Notre Dame trailed by one at the half, but after some trickery in the form of Armando Allen passing to Robby Parris from the Wildcat formation for a touchdown and a field goal, Notre Dame took the lead. but Michigan State came charging back with a field goal and touchdown pass of their own to take a four point edge. The Jimmy Clausen took the team on his back. Clausen completed all four of his pass attempts on the drive, including a 33-yard pass to Golden Tate for a touchdown. Kirk Cousins then tried to do the same for the Spartans and almost did, but overthrew a wide open Larry Caper. One play later, the Irish got pressure and force Cousins to throw an interception to Kyle McCarthy to seal the victory.
Result: Notre Dame 33, Michigan State 30; 2-1

Notre Dame at Purdue
What I predicted: Purdue had one of the worst rushing defenses in the league last season and are not expected to be much better this year, so this could be the game Armando Allen and company truly have their coming out party. Throw on top of that the fact that last year's third-string quarterback is now the Boilermakers' starter and the picture becomes pretty clear.
Result: Notre Dame 35, Purdue 6; 3-1
What really happened: With Armando Allen out with an injury, the Irish turned to Robert Hughes and Golden Tate for the rushing attack, including using Tate in a big way as the quarterback in the Wildcat formation. Clausen, playing in his first game with a turf-toe injury, was less than spectacular and didn't play the majority of the second half, but again came through in the clutch. After blowing a 17-7 lead in the fourth quarter, Clausen led the Irish down the field and completed a fourth and goal pass to Kyle Rudolph for a touchdown with 24.8 seconds left.
Result: Notre Dame 24, Purdue 21; 3-1

Washington at Notre Dame
What I predicted: For the second-straight week, the Notre Dame backfield tears up the opposition - this time against last year's third-worst rush defense - and gains more much-needed confidence. Jake Locker will do better than Randy Fouch did last season against the Notre Dame defense, but not nearly well enough to make up for his inept defense.
Result: Notre Dame 42, Washington 16; 4-1
What really happened: Jake Locker did do a lot better than Fouch, but neither team found the end zone with any regularity as eight field goals were kicked between the two sides. Notre Dame's defense came through in a huge way with three goal line stands, including one final one with just over three minutes remaining. On that stand, Irish stopped the Huskies twice on the one-yard line, forcing a field goal to keep the team within striking distance at 27-22. Clausen again game through in ahuge situation, completing a pass to his new red zone favorite Kyle Rudolph and Robert Hughes converted the two point attempt. But with the time left, Washington drove and kicked a tying field goal. In overtime, Clausen hit Golden Tate, bringing the Irish to the three. After an offsides penalty, Hughes scored from the one. On the Huskies' last play of the game, Locker scrambled and put up a prayer to D'Andre Gooden, which would have been caught if Harrison Smith and Kyle McCarthy hadn't sandwiched him so hard it nearly knocked him unconscious.
Result: Notre Dame 37, Washington 30; 4-1

So things have not gone exactly as expected, but at this point, the Irish are just about where I thought they'd be heading into the bye before the biggest game of the season against USC. How good is this team? That game will be more of a barometer than anything that has happened to this point in the season. All we know at this point is the Irish have heart and a true leader in Jimmy Clausen, something that seemed to be lacking from last season. Stay tuned.