Fan Fanatic Sports Staff
Who to grab at running back?
While that has been the No. 1 position to land on draft day in any type of format over the years, the running back position is starting to take a back seat to the wide receivers. It's pretty simple, too. The running back by committee approach is really hosing fantasy owners, while the increasing-popular points per reception has given wideouts more fantasy appeal.
I'm not saying running back aren't important, but having to play the juggling act between rotating tailbacks takes away from overall fantasy production.
So, obviously, the key is to draft those backs that have won the starting job outright and don't really have the share the workload with anyone else.
TOP 20
1. Adrian Peterson -- Vikings
The 6-foot-1, 217-pound featured back from Minnesota just keeping getting better. Now entering his third season, AP will be looking to increase his production of 1,760 yards and 10 rushing TDs with 21 receptions and 125 yards. Just think if the Vikings would use Peterson a little more in the passing game. But either way, you can't go wrong with landing Peterson as your featured back. Plus, he's a workhorse who gets the ball quite often -- 363 carries last year.
2. Matt Forte -- Bears
As a rookie Forte, a second-round draft pick out of Tulane, was a force in both the rushing and passing game. He had 1,238 yards rushing and 63 catches for 477 yards with 12 total touchdowns. Could you make a case for him as your No. 1 back or the top overall running back selected? No doubt. Forte might even be stronger this year with Jay Cutler now running the show at QB. Watch Forte's numbers blow up -- rushing, receiving and total touchdowns. He's a fantasy force.
3. Michael Turner -- Falcons
Turner the Burner proved that he's a top-flight running back, considering he had spent his previous years as a backup in San Diego. Turner just knows how to find the end zone -- he had 17 TDs and 1,699 yards as a first-year starter. With the way Matt Ryan led the Atlanta offense last year, expect Turner to carry the load once again. Don't be surprised if he duplicates that TD total. One downer for Turner owners: He's a non-factor in the passing game (6 catches last year).
4. Brian Westbrook -- Eagles
Say what you want about Westbrook -- he's injury-prone (he's missed at least one game in the last 3 years), but he's usually on the field playing hurt and he's still productive and dangerous while being wounded. Westbrook is that true double-threat (rushing, receiving) that you should covet on draft day. He's averaged 1,162 yards, 74 receptions, 402 receiving yards and 12 total touchdowns in the last three years. I know he's coming off injury and that's always a scary scenario, but when the Eagles' offense is going strong, Westbrook is the one that's breaking down opposing defenses.
5. DeAngelo Williams -- Panthers
Williams might split time with Jonathan Stewart in the Carolina backfield, but there's no mistaking who is the go-to back. Williams was a fantasy delight last season with 1,515 yards and 20 touchdowns. We all know the Panthers love to take the air out of the football and use their hulking offensive line to wear down defenses, and Williams is the ultra-quick back that teams just can't bring down -- especially in the fourth quarter when they are gassed from getting beat on the entire game. Don't sleep on Williams. He didn't score 20 times last year for nothing. He'll carry your team.
6. Maurice Jones-Drew -- Jaguars
While I'm still not sold on Jones-Drew (I'm still questioning how he'll do as the featured guy in Jacksonville since Fred Taylor is now a member of the Patriots), there's no questioning that he's a productive fantasy guy. In shared duties last year, Jones-Drew rushed for over 800 yards and caught 62 balls for 565 yards, while scampering into the end zone 14 times. All in all, that equated into a very good season. But the question still remains: How will the 5-foot-7 back handle a full-time load. Can he take a pounding, while carrying the ball over 300 times and keep producing? Prove it to me. I'm not drinking that silly-juice just yet. I like the points he puts up, but is he the real deal and should I be believing all the hype?
7. Steve Slaton -- Texans
Slaton is simply a burner, but a real tough burner at that. As a rookie, he carries 268 times for 1,282 yards, and also added 50 catches for 377 yards and 10 total scores. Mind you, that was as a rookie. Slaton has quickly become a legit running back, no doubt earning the right to be considered a RB1 guy on draft day. When a guy proves that he's durable and has the uncanny knack and potential of scoring every time he touches the ball, then that's the type of guy you want leading your ballclub. Don't be afraid of a sophomore jinx.
8. Marion Barber -- Cowboys
Marion The Barbarian took a little break last year, and had an off year with only 9 total touchdowns due to a nagging toe injury. If the Cowboys don't lean on this stud and pound the rock -- he also has great hands and can be utilized in the passing game -- then they are just plain crazy. Barber runs with such force and power, the Cowboys seem afraid to really give him the ball 25 times per game. Barber's rushing carries for the last three years are: 135, 204, 238. It's just not enough. Even if Barber doesn't rack up the major rushing totals (he had 885 last year and 975 in 2007), he can make up for it with receptions (52 last year) and touchdowns (remember, he had 16 in 2006). Some owners might be worried about Barber's production, but not me. He's primed for a bounce-back season.
9. Chris Johnson -- Titans
Johnson, as a rookie, produced game after game. The East Carolina product rushed for 1,228 yards, while catching 43 passes and scoring 10 times. This was all while splitting carries with bigman LenDale White. Expect more sharing of the workload. If you know anything about the Titans you know they are physical and lean heavily on the run. It'll continue this year, but Johnson will once again get his numbers. While he may have games where White gets 2-3 goal-line vulture TDs, Johnson will get the stats from in between the 20-yard lines. Plus, his big-play ability is simply too good to pass up on.
10. LaDainian Tomlinson -- Chargers
What, LT at No. 10? It can't be, can it? You bet, this isn't the same LT from 2006 where he scored 31 TDs. But this version -- the 30-year-old shaky legs tailback -- is still good enough to help you get a fantasy title. Tomlinson, despite getting only 292 carries because Darren Sproles dipped into some off those handofffs, still managed to score 10 times. He's also still important to San Diego's passing game, where he caught 52 balls for 426 yards. LT still has something left in the tank, but don't go overboard and think you're going to get 2006's stats. But this is still LT, right?
11. Brandon Jacobs -- Giants
12. Steven Jackson -- Rams
13. Frank Gore -- 49ers
14. Reggie Bush -- Saints
15. Clinton Portis -- Redskins
16. Ryan Grant -- Packers
17. Kevin Smith -- Lions
18. Marshawn Lynch -- Bills
19. Ronnie Brown -- Dolphins
20. Thomas Jones -- Jets
WATCH OUT FOR
Ryan Grant -- Packers
Pierre Thomas -- Saints
Darren McFadden -- Raiders
LenDale White -- Titans
BE WARY OF
Joseph Addai -- Colts
Larry Johnson -- Chiefs
Jamal Lewis -- Browns
Willie Parker -- Steelers
WORTH A FLYER
Jonathan Stewart -- Panthers
Leon Washington -- Jets
Rashard Mendenhall -- Steelers
Cedric Benson -- Bengals
(Coming tomorrow: Wide receiver rankings by Jim Ingram)
I'm a little wary of picking Turner high this season. The Falcons have said they're looking to lighten his work load and now with Tony Gonzalez to go along with Roddy White and Michael Jenkins, it's very possible the Falcons will go with a more pass-heavy offense. He's still a good back, but after getting so much use last year and the fact he's going to lose carries this year, it's doubtful he'll have the same kind of success. I think a lot of people who draft him high will be pretty disappointed.
ReplyDeleteYes, Turner's load might be lightened slightly with Norwood getting a few more sniffs, but he's still the full-time starting tailback and is not in a committee approach.
ReplyDeleteI can see Turner's yards going down, maybe 1,300-1,500 yards, but think he makes up for less yards with TDs, which as far as fantasy, are still the most important for points.
Atlanta will move the ball via the pass and run, but remember this is still a ball-controlled offense. Do you really think they become a pass-heavy offense since Ryan is in his second year? No, the run opens the pass and that's what Atlanta does anyway. Bottom line is they like to run. Plus, who gets more numbers when an offense keeps putting up points? Yes, running backs get fed.
I have no worries at all about making Turner my franchise tailback. I'd say his numbers dip slightly (but that doesn't mean he isn't worthy of a high draft pick), but not enough for me to hesitate drafting him high ...even third if I get that draft position.