Fan Fanatic Sports StaffGood luck really being able to predict who will win the ultra-tough AL East, easily the toughest division in all of baseball.
The little old Rays surprised everyone last year, but most importantly the Red Sox and Yankees. It's like that kid that got his lunch money stolen every day at school and was beat up and stuffed into a locker, and he finally sticks up for himself and unleashes a haymaker that knocks out the bully and impresses the ladies.
But can it happen again this year? I don't think so.
This is a two-horse race, the Rays won't sneak up on anyone this year.
Again, it's down to the hated rivals Red Sox and Yankees.
The New York Yankees have a lot to prove this year. A new stadium, a spending spree that reminds you of a father trying to buy his kid's love on Christmas day and a win-now attitude (well, that's the same every year). But there's still questions.
The Yankees are getting old and fast. Shortstop Derek Jeter, left fielder Johnny Damon and Jorge Posada all are sporting the gray hairs, but still can produce, especially Jeter who will flourish in the leadoff role. They are not the problem, however.
Alex Rodriguez's injury really hurt the Yanks, but it's won cripple them unless A-Roid, A-Fraud, or A-Hole doesn't recover from surgery. He's only suppose to miss a month and will be replaced by unknown Cody Ransom. Ransom can hold the fort down, but if it takes too long for A-Hole to return, the fort will collapse on Ransom.
Pitching was also a problem last year, but it shouldn't be as the Yanks forked over major cash for lefty ace CC Sabathia and fireballer A.J. Burnett. Add them to Chien Ming-Wang (recovering from foot surgery), Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain, and the Yanks have a feared rotation that can rack up the strikeouts and limit base runners. They may have the most talented rotation, top to bottom, in baseball? Maybe. Chamberlain as the No. 5 guy in the rotation? Are you serious? He's got great stuff and I think he's primed for a big year ... as long as he stays off the sauce. Top prospect Phil Hughes is waiting in the wings for a callup, too. He's legit but just needs more experience.
Speedy center fielder Brett Gardner, if he can get on base, is a lock for 40-plus stolen bases. He can fly, but the big question is can he consistently hit Major League pitching? He adds a dimension to the Yanks that lets them get away from the three-run homer and more of manufacturing runs. Gardner's my pick for Rookie of the Year.
The injuries really concern me (here's the list of guys recovering from injuries from last year or currently are banged up) -- A-Hole, Posada, Robinson Cano, Wang, closer Mariano Rivera, DH Hideki Matsui).
The lineup won't be as powerful as in the past, but any time you add a player like Mark Teixeira -- a guy that hits for average, power and can play outstanding defense -- you're off to a good start.
Injuries are the main thing, but that's the same for every team. If they stay healthy, I don't see any reason why the Yanks don't get back into the postseason by either winning the division or getting the Wild Card. Pitching wins, and the Yanks are locked and loaded!
The Tampa Bay Rays are good, but they're not as good as they played last year. They played WAY OVER their head last year, bottom line.
Come on, Dioner Navarro, Akinori Iwamura, Jason Bartlett, free agent pickup and K king Pat Burrell? Do those guys scare anyone. Boooooooooooo!
Carlos Pena is a very good defender at first base and adds major pop to lineup, while Carl Crawford is a terror on the bases and third baseman Evan Longoria and outfielder B.J. Upton are studs. Those guys need to play at least 150 games apiece to even compete. They've got talent, no question, but not like the Sox or Yanks.
Starting pitching is a strength with top 3 arms James Shields, Scott Kazmir (a 5-inning pitcher who needs to stop walking the park because his stuff is electric) and Matt Garza (he's a competitor with a blistering heater), but Andy Sonnastine and Jason Hammel or Jeff Neimann are weak at the end of rotation. Closer Troy Percival is a breakdown candidate as well, but the pen is still legit. Oh, lefty sensation David Price was sent down to the minors for financial reasons, but he'll be back in a month or so. Add him into the rotations at either No. 4 or 5 and then the Rays are potentially frightening, but they need the offense to hold up their end of the bargain.
The Rays could win the division ... but they won't.
The Boston Red Sox have talent across the board, but with that also comes questions.
Have we already seen the best of designated hitter David Ortiz? Obviously, but he'll bounce back with much better stats since he appears healthy. Plus, that mango salsa is tasty (send some my way Big Papi!) Mike Lowell is breaking down and he missed significant time last year and went under the knife to repair his hip. He's on a decline, but could get out of bed at age 70 and still play All-Star caliber defense at the hot corner.
Please, stop talking about how Jason Varitek is soooo good at leading the pitching staff. It's old, already. The guy can't hit, Sox fans must admit that, too. Doesn't it tell you something when no one really wanted Tek when he was a free agent this offseason? Yes, he's still a very good defender and worth keeping around, but please stop with how he calls a great game. It's overrated.
Kevin Youkilis at first base and Dustin "The Rat" Pedroia solidify the right side of the infield. They are MVP players and a tough out every time they step into the batter's box. That's probably the best compliment that any hitter can get.
Jason Bay is good, but he's no Manny (ha, ha). J.D. Drew, is he hurt again? Not a great signing since he can't stay on the field. What's his injury now? Bust.
Will the real Jacoby Ellsbury please stand up? Sox fans have put him in the elite category already, but he's not there yet. Not even close. Yes, he's a burner on the bases, but his bat hasn't caught up with his legs. He's great on tracking balls down, but his arm is very similar to Damon. Yikes!
If he puts it all together this year, however, watch out. Jed Lowrie at shortstop, he's an upgrade over Julio Lugo. Let's see what the kid can do.
And the rotation. That's where I see some minor issues. The ace is Jon Lester -- not Josh Beckett. The southpaw has a mean hook, he throws inside and frustrates hitter. He's fun to watch pitch. Beckett was hurt last year and I'm interested to see how he performs this year. Daisuke Matsuzaka always has control issues but he's like Houdini with the way he wriggles out of trouble. He gets tough with guys in scoring position. He's not always pretty, but you can't argue with the results. The top 3 guys are as good as it gets, but after that you have to be a little concerned. Tim Wakefield, you either get the good or bad Tim and his fluttering knuckleball on every start. There doesn't seem to be an in between. Brad Penny was good a few years ago, his signing is a low risk pickup, so if he doesn't pan out, no big deal. John Smoltz -- he should still be with the Braves -- could contribute in a few months, but after shoulder surgery you never know what you're getting. He's tough as nails, however, so if he can give anything on the mound you're going to get the best he has to offer. Clay Buchholz emerged as a top prospect, but has fizzled ever since. He's not a answer. The bullpen is real good with Justin Masterson, Takashi Saito and Ramon Ramirez. I guess it's always better when you don't call upon Mike Timlin. And the dancing fool, Jonathan Papelbon, is lights out. His intensity on the mound is impressive, plus he's got great stuff.
The Red Sox have what it takes to win the division, too.
The Toronto Blue Jays have perhaps the best pitcher in the division in Roy "Doc" Halladay, who works fast and is capable of twirling a complete game every fifth day. But after that, the rotation is in shambles ... that alone will have them 10 games back in June. Offensively, it's also unimpressive, although Vernon Wells flashes talent and Alex Rios is a gifted player with good speed and power. But they don't have the juice on the mound or at the plate to contend. Is B.J. Ryan, who has been lit up like a Christmas tree during spring training, hurt?
And the Baltimore Orioles. This is a rotten ballclub, well, based primarily on that poor rotation, spearheaded by Jeremy Guthrie (watch how many times he gets ripped this year), Hayden Penn and Mark Hendrickson. Are you serious, I say? Who put this team together? But kudos to the O's for locking up right fielder Nick Markakis. He's a tremendous player, but it's too bad he's never going to see a postseason in his life. Ask for a trade, Nick. Now! Second baseman Brian Roberts flies under the radar, but not here. He's a hustler with a good glove and a good bat. He can do it all, plus he's such a heady base runner. Just like Mark DeRosa, Roberts is my type of player! The O's do have some pop in the lineup with Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora, however. But with that makeshift rotation and the closer issues (is it going to be George Sherrill or Chris Ray?), the O's will battle the Jays for the basement.
PREDICTION
1. Yankees
2. Red Sox
3. Rays
4. Blue Jays
5. Orioles
(Editor's note: Check back Sunday to get the entire staff's predictions for the MLB season)
By Chad Garner
By Jim Ingram
